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dc.contributor.authorMarshall, Leon
dc.contributor.authorBiesmeijer, Jacobus C.
dc.contributor.authorRasmont, Pierre
dc.contributor.authorVereecken, Nicolas J.
dc.contributor.authorDvorak, Libor
dc.contributor.authorFitzpatrick, Úna
dc.contributor.authorFrancis, Frédéric
dc.contributor.authorNeumayer, Johann
dc.contributor.authorØdegaard, Frode
dc.contributor.authorPaukkunen, Juho P.T.
dc.contributor.authorPawlikowski, Tadeusz
dc.contributor.authorReemer, Menno
dc.contributor.authorRoberts, Stuart P.M.
dc.contributor.authorStraka, Jakub
dc.contributor.authorVray, Sarah
dc.contributor.authorDendoncker, Nicolas
dc.coverage.spatialEuropa, Europenb_NO
dc.description.abstractbiodiversity loss, dynamic, future, land use change scenarios, pollinators, projections, species distribution models (SDMs), wild beesnb_NO
dc.description.abstractBumblebees in Europe have been in steady decline since the 1900s. This decline is expected to continue with climate change as the main driver. However, at the local scale, land use and land cover (LULC) change strongly affects the occurrence of bumblebees. At present, LULC change is rarely included in models of future distribu- tions of species. This study ’ s objective is to compare the roles of dynamic LULC change and climate change on the projected distribution patterns of 48 European bumblebee species for three change scenarios until 2100 at the scales of Europe, and Belgium, Netherlands and Luxembourg (BENELUX). We compared three types of models: (1) only climate covariates, (2) climate and static LULC covariates and (3) climate and dynamic LULC covariates. The climate and LULC change scenarios used in the models include, extreme growth applied strategy (GRAS), business as might be usual and sustainable European development goals. We analysed model performance, range gain/loss and the shift in range limits for all bumblebees. Over- all, model performance improved with the introduction of LULC covariates. Dynamic models projected less range loss and gain than climate-only projections, and greater range loss and gain than static models. Overall, there is considerable variation in species responses and effects were most pronounced at the BENELUX scale. The majority of species were predicted to lose considerable range, particularly under the extreme growth scenario (GRAS; overall mean: 64% 34). Model simulations pro- ject a number of local extinctions and considerable range loss at the BENELUX scale (overall mean: 56% 39). Therefore, we recommend species-specific modelling to understand how LULC and climate interact in future modelling. The efficacy of dynamic LULC change should improve with higher thematic and spatial resolution. Nevertheless, current broad scale representations of change in major land use classes impact modelled future distribution patterns.nb_NO
dc.rightsNavngivelse 4.0 Internasjonal*
dc.subjectbiodiversity lossnb_NO
dc.subjectland use change scenariosnb_NO
dc.subjectspecies distribution models (SDMs)nb_NO
dc.subjectwild beesnb_NO
dc.titleThe interplay of climate and land use change affects the distribution of EU bumblebeesnb_NO
dc.typeJournal articlenb_NO
dc.typePeer reviewednb_NO
dc.subject.nsiVDP::Zoologiske og botaniske fag: 480nb_NO
dc.subject.nsiVDP::Zoology and botany: 480nb_NO
dc.source.journalGlobal Change Biologynb_NO
dc.relation.projectAndre: BELSPO, Grant/Award Number: BR/132/nb_NO
cristin.unitnameAvdeling for terrestrisk økologi

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