Consequences of cross-season demographic correlations for population viability
Layton-Matthews, Kate; Reiertsen, Tone Kristin; Erikstad, Kjell E.; Anker-Nilssen, Tycho; Daunt, Francis; Wanless, Sarah; Barrett, Robert; Newell, Mark A; Harris, Mike P.
Peer reviewed, Journal article
Published version

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https://hdl.handle.net/11250/3084403Utgivelsesdato
2023Metadata
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Originalversjon
10.1002/ece3.10312Sammendrag
Demographic correlations are pervasive in wildlife populations and can represent
important secondary drivers of population growth. Empirical evidence suggests that
correlations are in general positive for long-lived species, but little is known about the
degree of variation among spatially segregated populations of the same species in relation to environmental conditions. We assessed the relative importance of two crossseason correlations in survival and productivity, for three Atlantic puffin (Fratercula
arctica) populations with contrasting population trajectories and non-overlapping
year-round distributions. The two correlations reflected either a relationship between
adult survival prior to breeding on productivity, or a relationship between productivity and adult survival the subsequent year. Demographic rates and their correlations
were estimated with an integrated population model, and their respective contributions to variation in population growth were calculated using a transient-life table
response experiment. For all three populations, demographic correlations were positive at both time lags, although their strength differed. Given the different year-round
distributions of these populations, this variation in the strength population-level demographic correlations points to environmental conditions as an important driver of
demographic variation through life-history constraints. Consequently, the contributions of variances and correlations in demographic rates to population growth rates
differed among puffin populations, which has implications for—particularly small—
populations' viability under environmental change as positive correlations tend to reduce the stochastic population growth rate.
Atlantic puffin, demographic correlations, integrated population model, multi-population
studies, population dynamics, seabird, transient-LTRE
Demography, Evolutionary ecology, Global change ecology, Population ecology