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dc.contributor.authorJeglinski, Jana W.E.
dc.contributor.authorWanless, Sarah
dc.contributor.authorMurray, Stuart
dc.contributor.authorBarrett, Robert
dc.contributor.authorGardarsson, Arnthor
dc.contributor.authorHarris, Mike P.
dc.contributor.authorDierschke, Jochen
dc.contributor.authorStrøm, Hallvard
dc.contributor.authorLorentsen, Svein-Håkon
dc.contributor.authorMatthiopoulos, Jason
dc.coverage.spatialNortheast Atlanticen_US
dc.description.abstractDensity-dependent feedback is recognized as important regulatory mechanisms of population size. Considering the spatial scales over which such feedback operates has advanced our theoretical understanding of metapopulation dynamics. Yet, metapopulation models are rarely fit to time-series data and tend to omit details of the natural history and behavior of long-lived, highly mobile species such as colonial mammals and birds. Seabird metapopulations consist of breeding colonies that are connected across large spatial scales, within a heterogeneous marine environment that is increasingly affected by anthropogenic disturbance. Currently, we know little about the strength and spatial scale of density-dependent regulation and connectivity between colonies. Thus, many important seabird conservation and management decisions rely on outdated assumptions of closed populations that lack density-dependent regulation. We investigated metapopulation dynamics and connectivity in an exemplar seabird species, the Northern gannet (Morus bassanus), using more than a century of census data of breeding colonies distributed across the Northeast Atlantic. We developed and fitted these data to a novel hierarchical Bayesian state-space model, to compare increasingly complex scenarios of metapopulation regulation through lagged, local, regional, and global density dependence, as well as different mechanisms for immigration. Models with conspecific attraction fit the data better than the equipartitioning of immigrants. Considering local and regional density dependence jointly improved model fit slightly, but importantly, future colony size projections based on different mechanistic regulatory scenarios varied widely: a model with local and regional dynamics estimated a lower metapopulation capacity (645,655 Apparently Occupied Site [AOS]) and consequently higher present saturation (63%) than a model with local density dependence (1,367,352 AOS, 34%). Our findings suggest that metapopulation regulation in the gannet is more complex than traditionally assumed, and highlight the importance of using models that consider colony connectivity and regional dynamics for conservation management applications guided by precautionary principles. Our study advances our understanding of metapopulation dynamics in long-lived colonial species and our approach provides a template for the development of metapopulation models for colonially living birds and mammals. connectivity, conspecific attraction, dispersal, immigration, latent process, long-term population monitoring, marine conservation, metapopulation dynamics, Monte Carlo Markov Chain, Morus bassanus, Northern gannet, regulatory feedbacken_US
dc.rightsAttribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 Internasjonal*
dc.subjectconspecific attractionen_US
dc.subjectlatent processen_US
dc.subjectlong-term population monitoringen_US
dc.subjectmarine conservationen_US
dc.subjectmetapopulation dynamicsen_US
dc.subjectMonte Carlo Markov Chainen_US
dc.subjectMorus bassanusen_US
dc.subjectNorthern ganneten_US
dc.subjectregulatory feedbacken_US
dc.titleMetapopulation regulation acts at multiple spatial scales: Insights from a century of seabird colony census dataen_US
dc.title.alternativeMetapopulation regulation acts at multiple spatial scales: Insights from a century of seabird colony census dataen_US
dc.typePeer revieweden_US
dc.typeJournal articleen_US
dc.rights.holder© 2023 The Authorsen_US
dc.subject.nsiVDP::Zoologiske og botaniske fag: 480en_US
dc.subject.nsiVDP::Zoology and botany: 480en_US
dc.source.journalEcological Monographsen_US
dc.relation.projectAndre: UK Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategyen_US
dc.relation.projectEgen institusjon: Tromsø University Museumen_US
dc.relation.projectEgen institusjon: University of Glasgowen_US
dc.relation.projectEgen institusjon: University of Iceland Funden_US
dc.relation.projectEgen institusjon: Norwegian Polar Instituteen_US
dc.relation.projectAndre: German Academic Exchange Service (DAAD)en_US
dc.relation.projectAndre: Icelandic Ministry for the Environmenten_US
dc.relation.projectAndre: Icelandic Research Centreen_US
dc.relation.projectAndre: Norwegian Monitoring Programme for Seabirds SEAPOP programen_US
dc.relation.projectEgen institusjon: Norwegian institute for nature research (NINA)en_US

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Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 Internasjonal
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