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dc.contributor.authorMuylaert, Renata L.
dc.contributor.authorSabino-Santos Jr., Gilberto
dc.contributor.authorPrist, Paula R.
dc.contributor.authorOshima, Júlia Emi Faria
dc.contributor.authorDos Santos, Bernardo Brandão Niebuhr
dc.contributor.authorSobral-Souza, Thadeu
dc.contributor.authorOliveira, Stefan Vilges
dc.contributor.authorBovendorp, Ricardo Siqueira
dc.contributor.authorMarshall, Jonathan C.
dc.contributor.authorHayman, David T. S.
dc.contributor.authorRibeiro, Milton Cezar
dc.description.abstractBackground: Hantavirus disease in humans is rare but frequently lethal in the Neotropics. Several abundant and widely distributed Sigmodontinae rodents are the primary hosts of Orthohantavirus and, in combination with other factors, these rodents can shape hantavirus disease. Here, we assessed the influence of host diversity, climate, social vulnerability and land use change on the risk of hantavirus disease in Brazil over 24 years. Methods: Landscape variables (native forest, forestry, sugarcane, maize and pasture), climate (temperature and precipitation), and host biodiversity (derived through niche models) were used in spatiotemporal models, using the 5570 Brazilian municipalities as units of analysis. Results: Amounts of native forest and sugarcane, combined with temperature, were the most important factors influencing the increase of disease risk. Population at risk (rural workers) and rodent host diversity also had a positive effect on disease risk. Conclusions: Land use change—especially the conversion of native areas to sugarcane fields—can have a significant impact on hantavirus disease risk, likely by promoting the interaction between the people and the infected rodents. Our results demonstrate the importance of understanding the interactions between landscape change, rodent diversity, and hantavirus disease incidence, and suggest that land use policy should consider disease risk. Meanwhile, our risk map can be used to help allocate preventive measures to avoid disease.en_US
dc.rightsNavngivelse 4.0 Internasjonal*
dc.subjectland use changeen_US
dc.subjectemerging diseasesen_US
dc.subjectpublic healthen_US
dc.subjectpolygon-based analysisen_US
dc.subjectapproximate Bayesian inferenceen_US
dc.subjectlatent Gaussian modelsen_US
dc.subjectintegrated nested Laplace approximationsen_US
dc.subjectzero inflationen_US
dc.titleSpatiotemporal Dynamics of Hantavirus Cardiopulmonary Syndrome Transmission Risk in Brazilen_US
dc.title.alternativeSpatiotemporal Dynamics of Hantavirus Cardiopulmonary Syndrome Transmission Risk in Brazilen_US
dc.typePeer revieweden_US
dc.typeJournal articleen_US
dc.rights.holder© 2019 The Authorsen_US

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Navngivelse 4.0 Internasjonal
Except where otherwise noted, this item's license is described as Navngivelse 4.0 Internasjonal