Show simple item record

dc.contributor.authorHenden, John-André
dc.contributor.authorIms, Rolf Anker
dc.contributor.authorYoccoz, Nigel
dc.contributor.authorAsbjørnsen, Einar Johannes
dc.contributor.authorStien, Audun
dc.contributor.authorMellard, Jarad Pope
dc.contributor.authorTveraa, Torkild
dc.contributor.authorMarolla, Filippo
dc.contributor.authorJepsen, Jane Uhd
dc.description.abstractSustainable management of wildlife populations can be aided by building models that both identify current drivers of natural dynamics and provide near-term predictions of future states. We employed a Strategic Foresight Protocol (SFP) involving stakeholders to decide the purpose and structure of a dynamic state-space model for the population dynamics of the Willow Ptarmigan, a popular game species in Norway. Based on local knowledge of stakeholders, it was decided that the model should include food web interactions and climatic drivers to provide explanatory predictions. Modeling confirmed observations from stakeholders that climate change impacts Ptarmigan populations negatively through intensified outbreaks of insect defoliators and later onset of winter. Stakeholders also decided that the model should provide anticipatory predictions. The ability to forecast population density ahead of the harvest season was valued by the stakeholders as it provides the management extra time to consider appropriate harvest regulations and communicate with hunters prior to the hunting season. Overall, exploring potential drivers and predicting short-term future states, facilitate collaborative learning and refined data collection, monitoring designs, and management priorities. Our experience from adapting a SFP to a management target with inherently complex dynamics and drivers of environmental change, is that an open, flexible, and iterative process, rather than a rigid step-wise protocol, facilitates rapid learning, trust, and legitimacy. climate change; decision-making; food web; harvesting; near-term forecasting; population cycles; stakeholders; strategic foresight.en_US
dc.rightsNavngivelse 4.0 Internasjonal*
dc.subjectclimate changeen_US
dc.subjectfood weben_US
dc.subjectnear-term forecastingen_US
dc.subjectpopulation cyclesen_US
dc.subjectstrategic foresighten_US
dc.titleEnd-user involvement to improve predictions and management of populations with complex dynamics and multiple driversen_US
dc.typePeer revieweden_US
dc.typeJournal articleen_US
dc.rights.holder© 2020 The Authors.en_US
dc.subject.nsiVDP::Zoologiske og botaniske fag: 480en_US
dc.subject.nsiVDP::Zoology and botany: 480en_US
dc.source.journalEcological Applicationsen_US
dc.identifier.doi10.1002/eap. 2120

Files in this item


This item appears in the following Collection(s)

Show simple item record

Navngivelse 4.0 Internasjonal
Except where otherwise noted, this item's license is described as Navngivelse 4.0 Internasjonal