Developing methodology for setting Favourable Reference Values for large carnivores in Europe. Report to the European Comission under contract N° 09.0201/2023/907799/SER/ENV.D.3 “Support for Coexistence with Large Carnivores. Task B.3 – Assessment of large carnivores’ conservation status”
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This report aims to develop new guidelines for the setting of Favourable Reference Values (FRVs), which areneeded to assess Favourable Conservation Status (FCS), for the specific context of large carnivores (brown bear, Eurasian lynx, wolf, wolverine, golden jackal) in Europe. The work builds on the Guidelines for Population Level Management of Large Carnivores in Europe report that was published in 2008, but takes into account new developments in conservation science, new case law, experience with their
implementation, and the rapid development of the conservation status of large carnivores.
The need for these guidelines is underlined by the fact that until now relatively few member states have set quantitative values for their FRVs, and there is a massive degree in variation in the scientific basis for those that have. The need for specific guidance on large carnivores stems from both their specific ecology, with wide ranging movements and transboundary populations, and from their complex and often conflictful
relationship with humans.
In the report we explore the conceptual basis for setting FRVs. This involves trying to align best-practice and current scientific concepts with the legal / administrative language of the Habitat Directives and associated
guidance documents. In recent years conservation science has made important developments in multiple
relevant areas, including a shift away from the science of avoiding extinction to a science of planning for
species recovery and long term persistence. This involves a focus on building representation of ecological
conditions and building resiliency to changing environments, at least in part by ensuring redundancy. It also involves a greater focus on the long term genetics of populations in addition to shorter term demographic aspects. It is also important to recognise that conservation science has made important steps in mapping and understanding the diverse conflicts that are often associated with large carnivore populations in humanmodified landscapes.
As a result of this alignment between science and law / policy we developed a number of conceptual
recommendations that are important for developing functional FRVs. These include;
- Recognising FRVs as realistic and achievable targets for population recovery that represent the degree of member state contribution which is required for the collective conservation effort.
- Defining FRVs in terms of genetically effective population sizes aligned with the 50:500 heuristic. The 50
and 500 values refer to the effective population sizes required to minimise short term inbreeding and to
enable long-term adaptive capability respectively. Effective population size is a genetical concept, where the effective population size is typically between one third and one tenth of the total population size depending on species ecology.
- Recognising that FRVs, and FCS, are not necessarily absolute values. To be achievable they must be scaled to member state preconditions (size, area of habitat, landuse).
- Accordingly we propose a separation between population level FRVs that are pegged on absolute values
associated with genetically effective population sizes (often involving transboundary populations), and
member state level FRVs that are scaled to their preconditions as long as the contributions of all member
states sharing a population sum to a level that satisfies the population level FRV. In other words, FRVs and FCS are both absolute and relative concepts depending on the scale being considered.
- The need for large population sizes (FRP) requires a renewed focus on range (FRR) at national and
international levels and ensuring that there are widely dispersed populations with high degrees of
connectivity. Mapping and safeguarding this connectivity are important components of FRR.
- We also propose an additional focus on ensuring that range spans all Natura 2000 sites designated for the species, all relevant biogeographic regions, and all relevant ecosystem types. This helps address aspects related to the ecological functionality of large carnivores which have remained a neglected component of the definition of FCS.
- This approach requires a high degree of coordination in monitoring across borders, and with a strong focus on monitoring both demographic and genetical properties.
- These efforts would be enhanced by transboundary cooperation and the setting of joint management
plans, although we also propose post hoc mechanisms for larger scale assessment based on reports
submitted by member states.
We integrate these concepts into simple checklists that can guide the setting of the FRVs that are necessary to reach FCS at both population and member state levels. In addition, we provide illustrative scenarios of how current distributions relate to Natura 2000 sites and biogeographic regions, as well as illustrating how different degrees of connectivity and different parameter choices would influence the size of populations required to reach the recommended effective population sizes for the different species.
If these concepts are followed it should secure the long term conservation of large carnivores in Europe. The requirements can be jointly met through transboundary cooperation which shares the effort across member states, and for most populations can be realistically achieved.